Rendezvous With Destiny

Following up on my belief that Republicans will hold Congress because, let’s face it, the Democrats’ biggest obstacles to regaining power is that they are the Democrats, now we have the New Jersey Supreme Court handing the GOP  “a Republican gift of yet-to-be-determined value,” according to University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato.

Wrote Sabato: “New Jersey’s seven Supreme Court justices have unwittingly come to the luckless GOP’s aid; they may have just influenced several key midterm races in a way no fund-raising visit from Bush, Cheney, Giuliani, Hastert, McCain, Mehlman, or Rove could have.

“The state high court’s decision to mandate the legislature to pass full legal rights to New Jersey’s same-sex couples could not have come at a worse time for Democrats all across the country.”

Talk about your October surprise. This is even better for Republican prospects than Osama’s video message just before the ‘04 election, warning people they better not vote for Bush. Republicans have just been handed a gift all right; are they smart enough to open it?

This issue has the potential to completely shift the conversation from now until election day: No more Congressman Foley, no more culture of corruption…right now, it’s about the Republicans being able to claim that if they do not keep power, every state–INCLUDING YOURS–will be just like New Jersey and the people will no longer have a right to decide for themselves what marriage means.

Noting that successful anti-gay marriage ballot initiatives in 11 states “greatly aided Republican prospects in key races in 2004 by boosting turnout of base conservatives, in particular, easy-to-organize evangelical churchgoers,” Sabato explained. He said that the issue then was still fresh in voters’ minds following a similar court ruling in Massachusetts which caused social conservatives to condemn it as unwarranted judicial activism. “The GOP’s rallying cry against ‘activist judges’ helped Bush carry critical Ohio among other states and assisted the party’s efforts to retain congressional control.” 

For all the critics who have claimed that these marriage protection amendments are nothing but pandering to religious voters by conservatives  hoping to turn out the base, this ruling demonstrates once and for all that conservatives have not started this fight. The punches are being thrown by unelected ‘legislators in robes’, and Republicans can now go to the voters with a battle cry about defending America against New Jersey’s values. Specifically, this could definitely cost Democrats their US Senate seat in that state. Sabato also talks about national implications of the ruling:

“In the face of renewed calls to arms against gay marriage and civil unions, anti-gay marriage ballot initiatives in eight states (Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Virginia, Wisconsin) would now be favored to prevail with more sizeable margins than initially anticipated.” But, he added, “more importantly for our purposes, added evangelical turnout could prove a decisive boon to GOP turnout in key races for control of Congress all over the nation —perhaps in Tennessee and Virginia’s absolutely crucial Senate races.” 

I admit, I’ve questioned whether or not the gay marriage ban would pass in Wisconsin because I thought the opposition has waged a better funded, effective campaign that essentially said this referendum has nothing to do with gay marriage. The anti-referendum folks have done a good enough job that even I had to send my pastor an email asking him what he thought about it, before I could determine how to vote. This could be a decided blow to Fair Wisconsin’s hopes of an upset here to end the 0-for-lifetime streak of fighting marriage amendments in the United States.

You have to almost feel sorry for the Democrats. New Jersey judges have just handed Republicans something they, for the most part, did not have previously: A reason to vote for them on November 7th.